Prepay Analysis: November 2024

Speeds have levelled off with the exception of governments. The average coupon of all loans outstanding in this database ($5.6T) is 4.01%, and 88% of all mortgages have coupons under 6.00%. However, two dynamics are beginning to appear. 

1. We are starting to see some borrowers tiring of blindly hanging onto their low-rate mortgages and succumbing to demographic pressures (desire for a new home, job transfers, etc.) to refi.
2. Coupons > 6.00% now comprise over 12% of the total population outstanding. These loans appear very vulnerable to refinancings.