Prepay Analysis: September 2024

Speeds seem to be on a slow, but erratic, upward projectory. The average coupon of all loans outstanding in this database ($5.6T) is 3.95% and 89% of all mortgages have coupons under 6.00%. However, two dynamics are beginning to appear.

1. We are starting to see some borrowers tiring of blindly hanging on to their low-rate mortgages and succumbing to demographic pressures (desire for a new home, job transfers, etc.) to refi.
2. Coupons > 6.00% now comprise over 10% of the total population outstanding. These loans appear very vulnerable to refinancings.