Actual Residential Mortgage Prepay Speed Trends July 2024

Speeds seem to be on a slow, but erratic, upward trajectory. The average coupon of all loans outstanding in this database ($5.6T) is 3.93% and 89% of all mortgages have coupons under 6.00%. However, I think we are starting to see some borrowers tiring of blindly hanging onto their low-rate mortgages. Demographic pressures (desire for a new home, job transfers, etc.), combined with a growing realization that rates are not coming down significantly in the near future may be driving this. Despite this, in today’s 6.60+/=% (CF30) rate environment, payoffs should stay low for quite a while.