The Month in Review: July 2024

Though consumer spending remains relatively solid with GDP growth ending the second quarter at 2.8%, there are signs of the economy cooling. The labor market, while historically strong, is exhibiting softening trends with slower job growth and a gradual increase in unemployment. Inflation has eased, but remains a persistent concern, influencing consumer behavior and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. As announced today, the Federal Reserve has opted to maintain interest rates at their current level for now, but they have signaled that rate cuts may be on the horizon. Many economists anticipate the first of the cuts to begin in September. National credit card debt and delinquencies are soaring, and household savings are low. Geopolitical events are still creating headwinds with the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars grinding on interminably. The upcoming U.S. presidential election has the potential to create an economic disruption as well. Oil prices are at $79/barrel.